MGA-ExxonMobil Industry Talk

21 March 2018

On 13th March 2018 Malaysian Gas Association (MGA), in collaboration with ExxonMobil, organized the presentation of “The Outlook for Energy: A view to 2040” by the principal contributor to the report, Ms. Lynne D. Taschner from ExxonMobil USA.

The Outlook for Energy is ExxonMobil’s global view of energy demand and supply through 2040. The report highlights the dual challenge of ensuring the world has access to affordable and reliable energy supplies to support prosperity while reducing environmental impacts – including the risks of climate change.

In her presentation, Ms. Tashner highlighted the following;

Global energy needs will rise by 25 percent, led by developing countries

As energy is required to improve standards of living, global energy demand will increase led by developing countries as businesses develop and people gain access to cars, electrical appliances and homes with heating and cooling.

Natural gas will expand its role to meet a wide variety of needs

The abundance and versatility of natural gas make it ideal for a variety of needs. Being clean, it will also help the world shift to a low-carbon and sustainable future. As a result, natural gas will grow the most of any energy type, meeting a quarter of all energy demand. Demand for this clean fuel is estimated to increase to 445 billion cubic feet per day by 2040. Residential and commercial users will continue to rely on natural gas as a convenient modern fuel for heating and cooking. Air quality management a key driver for China’s and India’s natural gas demand growth.

Global electricity demand grows 60 percent from 2016 to 2040, driven by demand in residential, commercial, industrial and transportation sectors

A wide variety of energy types will support electricity generation, with natural gas, renewables and nuclear increasing their share. Half of the natural gas’ phenomenal 40 percent growth in use will come from electricity generation. In comparison, the share of the world’s electricity generated by coal is expected to fall to less than 30 percent in 2040 from approximately 40 percent in 2016.

Decarbonization of the world’s energy system will accelerate

Energy efficiency gains made possible by technological advances and a shift to less carbon-intensive energy sources will contribute towards a 45 percent decline in global carbon intensity by 2040. Energy-related carbon emissions will likely peak at 10 percent above the 2016 level by 2040. A large part of this will be to more intensive and extensive use of natural gas, which will account for a quarter of all energy demand by 2040.

Global transportation-related energy demand will increase by close to 30 percent by 2040 with growth for natural gas seen in the commercial road and marine sectors

The outlook projects a rise in electric vehicles as well as efficiency improvements in conventional engines. In total, full hybrid, plug-in hybrid, and electric-only vehicles will be approaching 40 percent of global light-duty vehicle sales in 2040, compared to about 3 percent in 2016. This will likely lead to a peak in liquid fuels use by the world’s light-duty vehicle fleet by 2030. However, oil will continue to play a leading role in the world’s energy mix with demand for liquids could still be similar to current levels. This is because of growing demand from commercial transportation and the chemical sectors. For natural gas, in transportation, it will see strong growth in the commercial road and marine sectors.

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